ARTICLE
As part of Metro’s planning for its next round of UGB decisions, it is required to develop Urban Growth Report. While typically a routine and dry process of inputs and outputs, there are new tools being introduced to try and more accurately capture the true data assumptions being how much buildable land is in the UGB and what the likelihood of development is going to be. As part of HBA’s seat on the UGR’s formal monthly Roundtable with regional stakeholders, we’ve learned that Metro will be incorporating a new capacity analysis tool that offers a market-rate perspective and pro forma model to determine the likelihood of development actually occurring within our existing boundaries, and how that may justify a need to bring in more lands. Created by Jerry Johnson and his team at Johnson Economics, Metro will be able to better estimate their development assumptions of land inside the UGB based on things like interest rates, zoning capacity, environmental constraints, and other market factors. The model is still being developed but was previewed at Metro’s most recent roundtable meeting. We anticipate the full model will be revealed the spring for a more complete analysis.